Key Documents

Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Projections


Definition of parameter perturbations

We do not know of a neat way to download these CSVs other than going to the raw text file and copying and pasting from that in to a text editor. If the file is too large for github to format, you will see a download button. If you click download you get the raw text file. However, if the file is small, github formats it. In that case, hit “raw” to reveal the raw text.

Link to notebook on how to read CSV files that store the parameter perturbations for the following base model configurations:

Key Papers and Reports

Murphy JM, Harris GR, Sexton DMH, et al (2018) UKCP18 Land Projections: Science Report link to report

Yamazaki K, Sexton DMH, Rostron JW, et al (2021) A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 2: Global performance and future changes Clim Dyn. link to paper with link to part 1 below

Sexton, David, Kuniko Yamazaki, James Murphy and John Rostron (2020) Assessment of drifts and internal variability in UKCP projections link to report

Underpinning papers

Tsushima, Y., Ringer, M.A., Martin, G.M. et al. Investigating physical constraints on climate feedbacks using a perturbed parameter ensemble. Clim Dyn 55, 1159–1185 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05318-y

Rostron, J.W., Sexton, D.M.H., McSweeney, C.F. et al. The impact of performance filtering on climate feedbacks in a perturbed parameter ensemble. Clim Dyn 55, 521–551 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05281-8

Li M, Wu P, Sexton DMH, Ma Z (2021) Potential shifts in climate zones under a future global warming scenario using soil moisture classification. Clim Dyn 56, 2071–2092 link to paper

Drouard M, Woollings T, Sexton DMH, and McSweeney CF (2021) Dynamical differences between short and long blocks in the Northern Hemisphere link to paper

Sexton DMH, McSweeney CF, Rostron JW, Yamazaki K, et al (2021) A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations. Clim Dyn. link to paper

Zhang, Wenxia & Furtado, Kalli & Wu, Peili & Zhou, Tianjun & Chadwick, Robin & Marzin, Charline & Rostron, John & Sexton, David. (2021). Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world. Science advances. 7. 10.1126/sciadv.abf8021. link to paper

Peace Amy H., Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron (2022) Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts. Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232 link to paper

Jain, Shipra & Doherty, Ruth & Sexton, David & Turnock, Steven & Li, Chaofan & Jia, Zixuan & Shi, Zongbo & Lin, Pei. (2022). Future projections of daily haze-conducive and clear weather conditions over the North China Plain using a perturbed parameter ensemble. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 22. 7443-7460. 10.5194/acp-22-7443-2022. link to paper

Rostron, John & Sexton, David & Furtado, Kalli & Carvalho, Maria João & Milton, Sean & Rodríguez, José & Zhang, Wenxia. (2022). Evaluation and projections of the East Asian summer monsoon in a perturbed parameter ensemble. 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1415799/v1. link to paper